Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
