Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.