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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "severe consequences" in August should Putin continued obstructing peace discussions, Trump finally enacted major penalties on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted Putin's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

But, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or European input, the former president has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's plan would in practice favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Although bold declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually compromise that very autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the president. However, Putin's war is not only about occupying a charred region of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it stops acts as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that his growing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While freezing in position the currently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with area that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically compromised.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that are a key barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, leaving Putin a clear route to Kyiv in case he subsequently choose to resume the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would make renewed fighting easier for Russia, the plan would force the nation to cut the size of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative places no such limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people administration as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "All Nazi doctrine and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes Russia promise not to "attack other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable treaties in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's borders in exchange for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied territory in the region to the government – why should the international community believe Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. Although the proposal threatens a "immediate coordinated military response" in case Russia renew its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the details range from vague to alarming. The initiative would not only block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Russia from rebuilding his reduced troops, rearming, and reinvading.

International Concern

Another supplementary accord apparently would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. However unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not